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GBPUSD SIGNAL 15 MARCH : British Pound (GBP/USD) Grinding Higher After a Strong UK Jobs Report

GBPUSD SIGNAL

GBPUSD SIGNAL 15 MARCH : British Pound (GBP/USD) Grinding Higher After a Strong UK Jobs Report

The latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) jobs report shows that UK unemployment is back at pre-pandemic levels, while job vacancies have recorded yet another record high. The January unemployment rate fell to 3.9%, from a prior month’s 4.1%, while the number of job vacancies grew by 105,000 from the last quarter to hit a record 1,318,000. Growth in average total pay (including bonuses) was 4.8% and growth in regular pay (excluding bonuses) was 3.8% among employees from November 2021 to January 2022.

GBPUSD SIGNAL: Today’s robust jobs report follows last week’s strong monthly GDP release where monthly, quarterly and annual growth all beat expectations, while industrial and manufacturing production numbers also beat market forecasts. Sterling however is refusing to take these figures at face value with GBP/USD slipping back to 1.3000, before rebounding back to 1.3070, while EUR/GBP today posted a fresh five-week high at 0.8455. The Bank of England MPC meet on Thursday and will announce their latest policy decision with another 25 basis point interest rate hike fully priced into the market. A hawkish twist by governor Andrew Bailey, or an unexpected 50bps hike, may help stabilise Sterling at its current lowly levels and give the currency room to move higher.

GBPUSD SIGNAL : GBPUSD has tested 1.3000 twice in the last two days but the round number has held, so far. The break of the mid-November/mid-December cluster of lows between 1.3150 and 1.3200 has cast a bearish shadow over the pair and now acts as a zone of resistance. If 1.3000 breaks there is a possibility that GBP/USD may re-test the September 2020 swing-low at 1.2675.

Retail trader data show 73.99% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.84 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 0.54% higher than yesterday and 15.39% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 8.50% higher than yesterday and 1.06% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed GBP/USD trading bias.

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FIRST CAPITALS brand is authorized and regulated in various jurisdictions.

First Capitals Limited (www.First Capitals.com/eu) is regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission with CIF license number 185/12, licensed by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) of South Africa, with FSP No. 46614. The company is also registered with the Financial Conduct Authority of the UK with number 600475.

First Capitals (www.First Capitals.com/uk) is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority with license number 777911.

Exinity Limited (www.First Capitals.com/uk) is regulated by the Financial Services Commission of the Republic of Mauritius with an Investment Dealer License bearing license number C113012295.

Card transactions are processed via FT Global Services Ltd, Reg No. HE 335426 and registered address at Ioannis Stylianou, 6, Floor 2, Flat 202 2003, Nicosia, Cyprus, and via Exinity Services Ltd , Reg No. HE 400404 and registered address at Agiou Georgiou Makri, 64, Anna Maria Lena Court, Flat 201, 6037, Larnaca, Cyprus. Address for cardholder correspondence: backoffice@First Capitals.com.. Business location address: FIRST CAPITALS Tower, 35 Lamprou Konstantara, Kato Polemidia, 4156, Limassol, Cyprus.

Exinity Limited is a member of Financial Commission, an international organization engaged in a resolution of disputes within the financial services industry in the Forex market.

Risk Warning: Trading Forex and Leveraged Financial Instruments involves significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. You should not invest more than you can afford to lose and should ensure that you fully understand the risks involved. Trading leveraged products may not be suitable for all investors. Trading non-leveraged products such as stocks also involves risk as the value of a stock can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Before trading, please take into consideration your level of experience, investment objectives and seek independent financial advice if necessary. It is the responsibility of the Client to ascertain whether he/she is permitted to use the services of the FIRST CAPITALS brand based on the legal requirements in his/her country of residence.  Please read FIRST CAPITALS’s full Risk Disclosure.

Regional restrictions: FIRST CAPITALS brand does not provide services to residents of the USA, Mauritius, Japan, Canada, Haiti, Suriname, the Democratic Republic of Korea, Puerto Rico, Brazil, the Occupied Area of Cyprus and Hong Kong. Find out more in the Regulations section of our FAQs.

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